Building your financial forecast and model

 
 

THE BRUTAL TRUTH

You need a financial forecast whether you are starting out or knee-deep in orders.

A forecast allows you to:

1)      Understand your cash flow and reduce the risk of flameouts.

How long is your runway, and how much money do you have to invest in growth?

2)      Allow you to plan and budget.

Without a financial forecast, you are running blind. You need to know how to allocate your resources.

3)      Set realistic goals and objectives

Knowing what direction your finances are heading in allows you to set achievable and impactful objectives.

With a good forecast, you can analyse past performance and scenario plan to help you decide what you need to do.

4)      Gain investment

Without a robust financial plan, you will not be credible to most investors. What’s more, you will have little idea how much money you need or be able to articulate why you need it.

The catch

The problem is that every business is different, and modelling can be complicated.

For this reason, too many founders and management teams come up with a fudge or, worse, don’t bother.

In the short term, it’s easy to follow your gut however you are on the road to no investment prospects, no cash in the bank, a demotivated team, and no clue what to do next.

The good news: we can help

We have spent the last 20 years creating and critically using models for our own businesses and for others.

At Peppersmith, our financial model was crucial for planning, gaining investments and navigating uncertain times.

We can now share and modify our models for your business.

What we can build for you

We build customisable excel models that can be used on an ongoing basis to track, budget, plan and re-imagine your business.

Key features:

  • A revenue forecast that can accommodate retailers, wholesalers, DTC, marketplaces and more.

  • COGS and distribution costs that include activity-based margins, avoiding procurement-driven margin swings.

  • Marketing and variable cost plan. For DTC businesses, this can also include CAC by channel.

  • Overheads, including personnel plan.

The outputs

  • A 3-5 year P&L

  • Cash flow plan, which incorporates VAT, payment terms, investments and loans

  • And, to delight your investors and accountants, balance sheets and key financial KPIs

  • The model can also be used to power your management reporting

Costs

  • Includes bug-free guarantee and detailed handover and training.

  • Optional ongoing support and updates are available to evolve the model with your business.

  • Starting from £2235 + VAT with a 10% discount for B-Corps.

What others are saying

“I’ve known Mike for a long time. What I didn’t know what that he is an Excel ninja - he helped us build a robust commercial model for our new venture, but of course underneath all the clever formulas he plugged in were years of experience and understanding having been there and built businesses himself. If you use Mike’s expertise, you’ll save yourself a tonne of time, energy and money.”

Jason Gibb
Co-founder
Unruly Foods & Bread and Jam

“Mike helped us create a robust business forecast, bringing much pragmatism, clarity, expertise, and strategic planning.  Thoroughly enjoyable to work with, we hope it is the start of a long-standing relationship.” 

Tom Whitley
Founder and CEO
9 Meals from Anarchy